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The ten-year hit a 2002 high and the inflation market never moved

Forty-eight basis points on the ten-year and one of them was inflation; Mistral's trillion-parameter model is cheap where it writes and dear where it remembers; and the EIA raised its oil forecast $14 with the G7's hundred million barrels left out.

Oct 7, 2026

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8 min read

The October hike was priced out and the curve went up anyway

A 29,000 payroll print moved the hike instead of removing it; Cloudflare ships an open-weight model that costs six times the one it clones; and the G7's hundred million barrels have no IEA decision behind them.

Oct 5, 2026

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7 min read

The front end repriced on an index that was rewritten underneath it

Three-month core inflation printed at target, and a fifth to a third of a point of the drop came from how three service components are now deflated. Plus the line on the price card that actually moved, and a reserve release aimed at the wrong shortage.

Oct 2, 2026

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9 min read

The thirty-year hit a 2002 high, and the curve flattened underneath it

A 2002 high in the 30-year on a flatter curve; the first benchmark of agentic work on local hardware says bandwidth is the constraint; and the Hormuz bypass restarted two-thirds full.

Sep 30, 2026

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7 min read

Every headline said inflation. The inflation number never moved.

A 45bp move in the ten-year that was entirely real yield, a flagship model that held its price and got dearer per task, and a 20-million-barrel claim that works out to half the pre-war rate.

Sep 29, 2026

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9 min read